The concept of sustainable development of human civilization – the problem status and the research objectives
The attempts to scientifically comprehend the global threats to humanity took place back in the 1970s, with the appearance of the Club of Rome's “The Limits to Growth” research. The conclusions of the study, which laid the ground for international discussion of the problem, were that the modern economic and population growth was on the the path leading to the collapse of civilization.
The discussion of the problems at the highest level started in 1972 at the UN Conference in Stockholm. In 1987, the Brundtland's UN commission issued the “Our Common Future” report. For the first time, it defined the concepts of sustainable development, according to which mankind is able to develop in sustainable and long-term manner, so that it could meet the needs of the current generation without depriving future generations of the ability to meet their needs. The idea of sustainable development formed the basis of Agenda 21, adopted at the 1992 Conference in Rio de Janeiro. Later on, following four subsequent world's summits, the world leaders confirmed their commitment to the course for sustainable development.
The concept of sustainable development implies the resolution of contradictions both between human society and natural environment, and the contradictions within the society itself, occurring in conditions of rising prosperity and exponential population increase. At this, such model of civilization development should be sustainable in the long run.
In reality, instead of approaching the status of sustainable development, humanity is moving away from it. The growing Earth's population and the model of socio-economic development, aimed to satisfy the endless needs, increase the natural resources exploitation rate, thus leading to the degradation of the natural environment. In the course of the competition for shrinking natural resources, the contradictions between people will only be growing. Attaining the solution of global problems in such conditions without changing the development paradigm is impossible.
The task of this research is to develop a conceptual model of asymptotically stable dynamics of geosystems and the model of constructive perfectionism. The concept of asymptotic stability can be described as a system’s ability to spontaneously return to the state of dynamic equilibrium, determined by the conditions of the global environment, which are outside of human control. Constructive perfectionism is aimed at improving the landscape structure on a regional scale.
|Affiliation of speaker||Институт мониторинга климатических и экологических систем СО РАН|
|Position of speaker||аспирант|
|Publication||Журнал «ХХI век. Техносферная безопасность»|