The energy efficiency of the Russian economy lags far behind that in the developed countries of the world. The enhancement of the energy efficiency and, first of all, the energy saving, is the source that can provide an additional economic growth through organizational and technical measures. The object of research is the economy of the Irkutsk region, whose energy efficiency increase is of particular relevance due to the high energy intensity of the economy. The study aims to perform an energy-economic analysis of the Irkutsk region and to make a forecast of the increase in the energy efficiency of the economy. A methodological approach proposed for the research is based on balance and statistical methods. The research involves the development of retrospective energy balances of the Irkutsk region (for the period of 2005-2017) and the calculation of energy efficiency indicators on the basis of these balances. Moreover, based on the statistical methods, the equation of the energy-GRP ratio is devised. The forecast for the energy and economic development of the Irkutsk region is made, the forecast energy balances are developed (for the period up to 2050), based on them, the energy intensity of the regional GRP is calculated for the long term, and measures to increase the energy efficiency are proposed. The obtained results can be used to predict the dynamics of changes in the energy-GRP ratio, depending on the development of the economy and energy industries of the Irkutsk region. Based on the proposed model, the executive authorities of the region can receive information about the planned change in the main indicator of the energy efficiency, i.e. energy-GRP ratio in the Irkutsk region.
|Affiliation of speaker||Melentiev Energy Systems Institute SB RAS|
|Position of speaker||ведущий научный сотрудник|