The concept of “asymptotic stability” implies the ability of geosystems to change the expediency of their development in accordance with the changing environmental conditions, being outside of human control. These objective conditions play a fundamental role for understanding the management principles connected with global geo-ecological processes. In era of powerful technogenic activity, it is practically impossible to establish any “growth limits”. In the best case, all attempts to determine the growth limits come down to "constructive perfectionism", which basically means improving the landscape structure on a regional scale. The thing is that there are no limits to Man's creative activitу, as evidenced by the entire history of the mankind. For this reason, in contrast with the ideas of the Club of Rome on the necessity to enforce the “limits of growth”, we propose a different paradigm and different objectives for socio-ecological systems development.
To the date, we can single out three dynamic types of geosystems (including socio-economic one), forming the global ecosystem:
- Asymptotically stable geosystems using renewable energy sources and performing self-regulation based on negative feedback principle. These include the absolute majority of the eco-bio-geocenoses and landscapes forming the biosphere in all geographical zones of the Earth;
- Ecosystems and their constituent elements (certain types of living organisms and animals, etc.), exponentially developing based on positive feedback principle, in conditions of an excess of renewable sources of nutrition, during short periods of time;
- Socio-economic systems and their constituent elements, exponentially developing based on positive feedback principle, due to the exploitation of long-term geological reserves of energy sources and the accumulated energy of ecosystems. To these system, the current type of human civilization is attained.
For all types of geo- and eco-systems, environmental conditions are the controlling factor. The slow changes in the environment evoke evolution and natural selection; while the rapid changes in the environment and energy sources lead to the fatal replacement of species and their diversity (global catastrophes).
Modern civilization can be considered as a global ecosystem which is objectively developing towards a monopolar world. We propose to conduct the study of the problem of sustainable development in two interrelated areas: the study of the laws of naturally emerging, asymptotically stable dynamics of geosystems (where the role of human activity is minimized) and the study of new man-changed structural integrities, which are developing on the principles of constructive perfectionism.
A societal emergent system is a global attractor in the civilization development, the eve of the coming new era in the history of mankind, in which economic relations will be based on scientifically grounded predictions of events, with collective planning and management of socio-economic processes. The epoch of democracy is coming to its end, naturally transforming into its more perfect continuation – noocracy – the power of reason, thought and technogenic abstractions.
|Publication||Журнал «ХХI век. Техносферная безопасность»|
|Position of speaker||главный научный сотрудник|
|Affiliation of speaker||Институт мониторинга климатических и экологических систем СО РАН|